منابع مشابه
Evaluating the Forecasts of Risk Models
The forecast evaluation literature has traditionally focused on methods for assessing point-forecasts. However, in the context of risk models, interest centers on more than just a single point of the forecast distribution. For example, value-at-risk (VaR) models which are currently in extremely wide use form interval forecasts. Many other important financial calculations also involve estimates ...
متن کامل“the effect of risk aversion on the demand for life insurance: the case of iranian life insurance market”
abstract: about 60% of total premium of insurance industry is pertained?to life policies in the world; while the life insurance total premium in iran is less than 6% of total premium in insurance industry in 2008 (sigma, no 3/2009). among the reasons that discourage the life insurance industry is the problem of adverse selection. adverse selection theory describes a situation where the inf...
15 صفحه اولEvaluating probabilistic forecasts with Bayesian signal detection models.
We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT...
متن کاملEvaluating multivariate volatility forecasts
The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that statistical-based methods, or...
متن کاملEvaluating Long–Horizon Forecasts
This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to predictions from nested long-horizon regression models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of a set of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing, showing that the tests have non-standard distributions that depend on the parameters of the data-generati...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 1999
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.158689